Policy-driven macroeconomic volatility has triggered U.S. corporate commentary about business and financial uncertainty, especially since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2. A number of companies, especially those in sectors with high tariff exposure (e.g., auto manufacturing) and high recession exposure (e.g., airlines) have cut or withdrawn earnings guidance for part or all of 2025.
At this point in the earnings season (about halfway through), these concerns have not impacted aggregate repurchase activity as measured by announced share repurchase authorizations. The data shows that repurchase authorization activity is, for now, mostly continuing as usual, with a few exceptions. There are even indications from companies that they may opportunistically upsize repurchases in response to lower equity valuations.
Share Repurchase Data
We examined all share repurchase program authorizations for U.S. companies with market capitalizations of $1 billion or greater, including increases as well as new programs, for April 2025, and compared it to the corresponding period in prior years.
levels.
Repurchase Authorizations Announced by Non-bank Corporates ($1B+ Market Cap)
| Programs Announced | Aggregate Authorization Size ($B) | Excluding Programs $10B+ | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
April 2025 |
46 |
$148.1 |
$38.1 |
|
April 2024 |
40 |
$107.0 |
$37.0 |
|
April 2023 |
34 |
$93.8 |
$23.8 |
|
April 2022 |
47 |
$214.3 |
$34.3 |
Data Source: VerityData
We exclude banks, whose capital return is Federal Reserve-regulated. And the right column shows authorizations excluding “megaprograms” that skew the totals, including Alphabet for $70B each year, Apple for $90B in 2022 (its timing was in May of other years), and Visa and Broadcom this year.
Share Repurchase Commentary
Many issuers announced their new authorizations without notable commentary as regular way house-keeping after completing their previous programs. Visa ($30B) and Molina Healthcare ($1B) referred to their new authorizations in their earnings press release and investor call without much commentary. Equifax ($3B) pointed to an increase in capital return trajectory, but principally as a function of strengthening cash flows and not market / macro related. Even Apple, despite reducing its annual authorization from $110B last year to $100B this year, characterized the capital return as being based on the “continued confidence we have in our business now” with the goal of “getting to net cash neutral.”
Other issuers in their earnings calls have emphasized authorizations in the market volatility as an opportunity to drive value:
- Ameriprise Financial ($4.5B): “a much bigger buyback program for us that gives us flexibility in the market environment.”
- D.R. Horton ($5B, intending to buy $4B in 2025): this “would be more than double than we did a year ago…we do see that as a compelling opportunity, utilization of our cash in the near term.”
- Constellation Brands ($4B): “we’ll be disciplined on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but we will also have the ability to be opportunistic as we see dislocations in our share price.”
- MGM Resorts ($2B): “the situation with the trading in the stock has just presented us with, we think, a fantastic opportunity to repurchase shares.”
At the other end of the spectrum, General Motors announced that after having executed a $2B ASR in February, it was “temporarily pausing additional repurchases until we have more certainty with respect to our operating environment.”
Despite heightened market volatility and macro uncertainty, to date we have not seen a meaningful scaling back of buyback activity as measured by new share repurchase authorizations; and in fact, some of the equity market price dislocations have occasioned some increase in activity in select parts of the market.
We will continue to monitor as earnings season develops. Please reach out to Matthews South for any questions or needs regarding share repurchase, capital structure or other financing.
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